Is a booster box worth opening?

Usually only if you enjoy opening it: for most sets, the cards in a typical box are worth less than the box costs, and the average is pulled up by a few rare big hits that most boxes never contain. Expected value means the average worth of the cards across a great many boxes, based on how often each rarity shows up. Bull Run's The Chase shows that average, the typical box, and how many boxes in 100 beat the price you would pay, for the sets it covers.

What is expected value, in plain words?

Imagine opening thousands of the same box and writing down what the cards in each were worth. The average of all those boxes is the expected value. It comes from pull rates, meaning how often each rarity shows up per pack, multiplied by what those cards sell for.

Expected value is an estimate, not a guarantee. Prices move, and pull rates come from studies of opened product.

Typical box vs average box

The average and the typical box are not the same. A few boxes hit a big chase card and are worth a lot; most do not. Those few lift the average, so the typical box, the one in the middle, is often worth noticeably less. If you open one box, the typical one is the better guide. The average only shows up if you open a great many.

Other things to weigh

The price you pay: the same box can cost very different amounts in different shops.
Bulk: commons are real cards you can trade or play with, but they resell for very little.
Keeping it sealed: some people hold boxes unopened instead; that is a different choice from opening.
Fun: opening packs is fun, and that has value even when the numbers say otherwise.

How Bull Run does it

On Home, go to Discover and tap The Chase. You can also reach it from a row on a set's page.
Use the chips at the top to switch between Pokémon, Magic and Yu-Gi-Oh. Each set shows its box MSRP next to the average value of the cards inside.
Tap a set. Choose a product (such as a pack or a booster box) and move the Price you'd pay slider, which starts at MSRP.
Read the results: how many boxes in 100 beat that price, the Typical box next to the Average, and unlucky, typical, lucky and jackpot outcomes.
Scroll for the chase cards that hold most of the value and to browse every card in the set.

Each set says where its pull rates come from. Only some sets are covered: sets with unverified or conflicting rates are left out rather than guessed. A set released in the last 60 days is shown greyed out until its prices settle. All values are estimates, not guarantees, and count the chase cards only, not bulk.

Which plan includes it?

Free: one set per game (Pokémon, Magic and Yu-Gi-Oh) opens in The Chase. Every other set is listed with a lock so you can see what is there.

Pro and Premium: every set in The Chase.

Any free account can try Pro free for 14 days.

Open The ChaseOpens in the Bull Run TCG app. No app yet? You will be taken to the install page.